The Commercial Investing Show

Jason Hartman talks with Daniel Amerman, CFA, about the need for legitimate economic data and whether we can get any of that from the government. The two also take a deep look at our nation's rising debt and what that means for the US currency moving forward.

Key Takeaways:

[2:42] Daniel recently reverse engineered the Congressional Budget Office's long term economic outlooko

[6:32] Is the CBO a credible source of information?

[8:41] Technically there's no such thing as an unfunded liability

[13:47] What does a heavily indebted nation mean for the investor?

[15:57] "It's crucially clear that, when you have a $20 trillion national debt, that interest rates can't rise too much"

[19:48] Why Jason hates hedonic indexes

[23:39] There's a lot of inflation that we either don't see or we don't acknowledge

[28:12] A 2% higher rate of inflation is magic for maintaining financial solvency

[31:23] When everyone learned that stocks were the magic wealth building machine they bid the prices of stocks so high the dividends crashed, which ruined the wealth creation

[34:02] Daniel is a huge fan, not of income property, but of the mortgage


Direct download: CI_115_Daniel_Amerman.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 5:47pm EST

In the final part of Jason's interview with Andrew Zatlin, the two take a look at whether the future of our economy is inflationary or deflationary. The two also look at the impact of technology on inflation, how it impacts the rental markets, and where the volatility in our economy will be in 2018.

Disclosure: this interview was recorded prior to the GOP Tax Reform being written and passed

Key Takeaways:

[1:32] The proof in the inflation pudding is shipping costs

[6:47] The economy is strong in the background

[8:31] Warehousing had a huge impact on the start of the internet

[11:10] When you reach the point where payroll and population growth are the same you don't get wage inflation

[15:35] When housing affordability is low and prices soften, the rental market strengthens

[19:30] Where 2018 volatility will come from


Direct download: CI_114_Andrew_Zatlin_2.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 6:01pm EST

In the first part of Jason Hartman's interview with Moneyball economist Andrew Zatlin, the two of them take a deep look at what's going on in the housing market through the lens that Andrew uses. He looks at hiring patterns of home builders, and has seen a distinct problem in their search for labor. So many industries are hunting for labor that it's creating a bottleneck.

The two also look at short-term rentals, hotel vacancies, the Fed's monetary policy, and what's creating the demand for housing.

Key Takeaways:

[1:33] Andrew likes to check in with companies about what they're doing in regards to hiring

[4:02] Home builders can't hire enough people right now. The bottleneck is labor because there's a LOT of competition for it

[7:00] One question we need to ask is: what's creating all this demand for housing?

[11:04] The environment today makes it more attractive to buy rather than rent

[16:54] Do short-term rental providers need to worry about oversupply?

[19:12] Hotel vacancy rates tipped into the negatives this past year because of short-term rentals exploding in popularity

[21:52] Demand will create supply, but sometimes supply can create demand

[25:45] The Fed is on a trajectory of tightening


Direct download: CI_113_Andrew_Zatlin_1.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:13pm EST