The Commercial Investing Show

Jason Hartman speaks with Leslie Appleton-Young, vice-president and chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. Leslie brings several charts and graphs to the conversation to share some staggering movement in California's real estate. In January, 2020 was shaping up to be a knock out year, but due to the Coronavirus pandemic, we are now looking at best for a quick recovery. Leslie and Jason draw correlations between the 2008 recession and recovery to the recent, seemingly, self-imposed recession. 

As well, Leslie shares data to support buyer/seller trends as emotions shift from the COVID-19 impact. The question continues to go unanswered, how will malls, retail space, and hotels change post coronavirus?

Key Takeaways:

[7:30] Jason and Leslie discuss predictions based on the Q2 hit in 2020, ranging from a 25% - 42% decline. 

[9:00] The buy-side of real estate is doing well, likely because of record low interest rates, more space needed for home offices, and more space desired in quarantine times. 

[15:30] In January, the 2020 expectation was to be a great year based on some standard metrics.

[16:20] We have not had a breakout market since the 2008 recession due to income and affordability restraints. 

[19:00] The virus and the government's response are two major contributing factors to set the tone for sellers and the recovery of the real estate market. 

[20:15] What is the general tone of California, are people staying or going? 

[24:45] We've seen a considerable adaptation of technology in the real estate industry. 

[30:00] Buyers feel a sense of urgency without expecting deals, while sellers are reluctant to lower their prices. 

[35:30] Jason and Leslie discuss the lack of supply and the building restrictions as one of the leading causes for a reduced amount of new homes being built. 

[38:00] How could malls, retail space, and hotels change into residential units for affordable housing, senior centers, or homeless shelters?

[40:30] What shape will the recovery take on? V, square root, swoosh, or W?

[43:00] The work-from-home order will likely be huge for housing.

Websites:

CAR.org

JasonHartman.com/Fund

JasonHartman.com/Asset

JasonHartman.com/Webinar

www.JasonHartman.com

www.JasonHartman.com/properties

Jason Hartman Quick Start

Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn)

Direct download: CI_Leslie_Appleton.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EST

Dr. Bryan Taylor joins Jason Hartman as they rewind the clock 1,000 years to look at the history of interest rates and housing costs. The bubonic plague and the Spanish Flu have both had an impact on economics. How does this relate to Coronavirus? 

Living in urban areas has historically been out of necessity. Currently, technological advances have taken away the demand for living in highly populated areas. Taylor and Hartman discuss the change in housing costs as influenced by the bubonic plague 800 years ago, but how reliable is this information?

Key Takeaways:

[2:00] Are interest rates the lowest they’ve ever been in history?

[3:20] Government debt explained based on the influences surrounding World War II

[4:20] Did Paul Volcker make the right moves?

[5:30] Are interest rates too low? What’s the fallout?

[8:30] Prices are being controlled mainly by a lack of demand.

[12:00] Flashback 102 years to the Spanish Flu, what happened economically?

[16:00] Are we to face a repeat of the roaring ’20s?

[20:00] Technology has solved the necessity of living in urban areas.

[21:15] During the bubonic plague, 1/3 third of the population was wiped out, while the houses remained, causing the most significant housing price drop in history.

[25:25] How reliable is 800-year-old data?

Websites:

GlobalFinancialData.com

JasonHartman.com/Asset

JasonHartman.com/Webinar

www.JasonHartman.com

www.JasonHartman.com/properties

Jason Hartman Quick Start

Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn)

Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes)

1-800-HARTMAN

Direct download: CI_Brian_Taylor_1521.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00pm EST

How much more can I borrow with interest rates this low? Jason Hartman shares some great news about mortgage rates and takes you through some strategy to take advantage of them. This investment discourse is built on United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM) announcing today that they are rolling our a loan program that offers mortgage rates as low as 1.99%.

Key Takeaways:

[1:10] Mortgage interest rates: UWM announced today that it’s rolling out a loan program that offers mortgage rates as low as 1.99%

[8:00] What if you could only get a 10-year mortgage? 

[15:30] Mortgage hypotheticals: How much can I borrow today?

Websites:

www.JasonHartman.com

www.JasonHartman.com/properties

Jason Hartman Quick Start

Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn)

Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes)

1-800-HARTMAN

Direct download: CI_Intro_1526.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EST

Michael Daugherty joins Jason Hartman to reveal the corruption behind the system. It's a cycle of corruption for keeping safe amid the storm known as D.C. Michael shares his experience beating extortion only to be left hanging for the government. As well, Daugherty shares what he means "the trap that congress laid." 

Key Takeaways:

[1:15] The government has unlimited resources, prosecutors, and budgets, and none of 'us' have that.

[3:00] The dangers of academics like Woodrow Wilson.

[5:00] Michael Daugherty's story, from extortion to government. 

[9:30] Your enemy today will be your friend tomorrow, the cycle of corruption in DC

[13:30] Section 5 of the FTC Act: The trap that congress laid.

[16:15] What's Twitter's rational from removing Trump's video tribute to George Floyd?

[18:00] You can burn a house down in 3 seconds, you can't build it back as fast. 

Websites:

TheDevilInsideTheBeltway.com

JasonHartman.com/Masters 

YouTube Jason Hartman

www.JasonHartman.com

1-800-HARTMAN

Direct download: CI_10th_1520_The_Devil_Inside_The_Beltway_Michael_Daughtery.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 12:00pm EST

Founder of Excelsior Capital, Brian Adams joins Jason Hartman today to discuss everything from millennials moving to the suburbs to the office market and how it’s changing post-pandemic. Public transportation is likely to continue its trend downward as the car will regain popularity in need for social distancing and health. 

Key Takeaways:

[2:30] Millennials, it’s not all Brooklynn bars and avocado toast, now they are trending towards suburban areas. 

[7:00] Speaking on the logistical challenges of a vaccine for COVID-19

[9:15] What do you see for the office property market?

[11:30] Suburban offices have a better chance of surviving the pandemic than high-density urban areas.

[14:15] Companies moving more towards mothership and hub and spoke models. 

[15:15] Are any new deals going on in the office market?

[16:00] How far through this pandemic do you think we are?

[17:20] The fed and congress have been flooding the capital market system with liquidity. 

[21:45] Will the development of tech push non-techies into a need for UBI? 

[22:25] Discussing office reuse. 

[25:45] Inflation will more than likely hit back.

[27:00] While the supply chain might be lacking, the price of construction seems to be substantially lower.

Websites: 

ExcelsiorGP.com

LinkedIn: Brian C. Adams

JasonHartman.com/Asset

JasonHartman.com/Webinar

www.JasonHartman.com

www.JasonHartman.com/properties

Jason Hartman Quick Start

Jason Hartman PropertyCast (Libsyn)

Jason Hartman PropertyCast (iTunes)

1-800-HARTMAN

Direct download: CI_1516-17_Brian_C._Adams.mp3
Category:general -- posted at: 9:00pm EST

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